Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $16.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $15.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $16.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $15.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $15.76 | Below threshold | +0.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $15.57 | -2.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $15.79 | -1.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.72 | +35.6% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 7.91 | 8.36 | 3.22 | 12.64 | 3.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.41 | 5.44 | 2.29 | 10.44 | 3.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 27.18 | 15.70 | 4.15 | 78.86 | 29.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADPT's fair value at $21.72 vs the current price of $16.02, implying +35.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.31 (P10) to $35.70 (P90), with a median of $21.69.
ADPT's current P/E of -14.8x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -169.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover ADPT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.25 (range: $21.00 — $22.00), implying +32.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ADPT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.