MODEL VERDICT
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $781.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $779.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $803.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $754.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $796.55 | Pending | -2.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $1158.75 | +48.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $920.04 | +17.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $904.44 | +15.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $1002.51 | +28.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $879.05 | +12.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $1063.21 | +36.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $219.08 | -72.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $1420.25 | +81.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $1346.67 | +72.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $1101.16 | +40.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $1089.98 | +39.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $987.18 | +26.3% | 100% | 87 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $638 | $723 | $808 | $893 | $978 |
| Conservative (5%) | $653 | $740 | $828 | $915 | $1002 |
| Base Case (6.3%) | $661 | $750 | $838 | $926 | $1014 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $675 | $765 | $855 | $945 | $1035 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.04 | 18.61 | 8.77 | 25.26 | 4.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.56 | 16.57 | 7.53 | 23.37 | 4.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.62 | 16.02 | 7.65 | 20.93 | 4.19 |
| P/FCF | 21.25 | 21.51 | 10.85 | 27.75 | 5.71 |
| P/FFO | 16.50 | 16.75 | 8.47 | 22.83 | 4.33 |
| P/TBV | 3.74 | 3.78 | 2.79 | 5.04 | 0.75 |
| P/AFFO | 19.79 | 20.02 | 9.07 | 28.96 | 5.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.66 | 3.78 | 2.68 | 5.04 | 0.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.21 | 6.54 | 4.41 | 7.61 | 1.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates REGN's fair value at $987.18 vs the current price of $781.67, implying +26.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $987.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $792.34 (P10) to $1197.21 (P90), with a median of $990.22.
REGN's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -13.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
48 analysts cover REGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $857.17 (range: $700.00 — $1057.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (34), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: REGN trades at the 4380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REGN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (36.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 980.0% to approximately $858. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.