MODEL VERDICT
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $701.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $751.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $750.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $753.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $748.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $682.41 | -2.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $614.11 | -12.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $1054.60 | +50.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $797.71 | +13.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $731.91 | +4.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $974.35 | +38.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $629.59 | -10.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $876.56 | +25.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $694.87 | -0.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $1147.79 | +63.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $796.79 | +13.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $800.09 | +14.1% | 100% | 90 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $553 | $638 | $723 | $808 | $893 |
| Conservative (5%) | $566 | $653 | $740 | $828 | $915 |
| Base Case (6.3%) | $573 | $661 | $750 | $838 | $926 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $585 | $675 | $765 | $855 | $945 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.04 | 18.61 | 8.77 | 25.26 | 4.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.99 | 16.57 | 7.53 | 23.37 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.22 | 17.41 | 7.65 | 20.93 | 4.55 |
| P/FCF | 21.25 | 21.51 | 10.85 | 27.75 | 5.71 |
| P/FFO | 16.50 | 16.75 | 8.47 | 22.83 | 4.33 |
| P/TBV | 3.74 | 3.78 | 2.79 | 5.04 | 0.75 |
| P/AFFO | 20.02 | 20.02 | 9.07 | 28.96 | 5.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.66 | 3.78 | 2.68 | 5.04 | 0.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.21 | 6.54 | 4.41 | 7.61 | 1.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates REGN's fair value at $800.09 vs the current price of $701.42, implying +14.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $800.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $687.86 (P10) to $857.82 (P90), with a median of $771.41.
REGN's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -33.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
48 analysts cover REGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $865.68 (range: $700.00 — $1057.00), implying +23.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (34), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REGN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (36.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2960.0% to approximately $909. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.