MODEL VERDICT
argenx SE (ARGX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $766.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $844.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $821.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $833.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $788.49 | Below threshold | +5.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $766.92 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $269.01 | -64.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $582.14 | -24.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $557.33 | -27.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $302.91 | -60.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $786.73 | +2.6% | 100% | 64 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 50× | 55× | 60× (Current) | 65× | 70× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $665 | $731 | $797 | $864 | $930 |
| Conservative (7%) | $681 | $749 | $817 | $885 | $953 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $703 | $773 | $843 | $914 | $984 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $725 | $798 | $870 | $943 | $1015 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.90 | 7.54 | 5.46 | 8.86 | 1.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.55 | 7.06 | 5.25 | 7.98 | 1.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 95.09 | 50.16 | 17.74 | 323.80 | 109.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARGX's fair value at $786.73 vs the current price of $766.92, implying +2.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $786.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $433.30 (P10) to $1063.83 (P90), with a median of $724.19.
ARGX's current P/E of 60.0x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +185.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
35 analysts cover ARGX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1026.71 (range: $858.00 — $1317.00), implying +33.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (29), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARGX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.