MODEL VERDICT
argenx SE (ARGX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $783.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $780.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $849.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $840.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $799.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $456.21 | -41.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $332.72 | -57.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $289.97 | -63.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $255.79 | -67.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $334.31 | -57.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $606.51 | -22.6% | 100% | 64 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 51× | 56× | 61× (Current) | 66× | 71× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $678 | $744 | $811 | $877 | $944 |
| Conservative (7%) | $694 | $762 | $830 | $898 | $966 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $717 | $787 | $858 | $928 | $998 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $740 | $812 | $885 | $957 | $1030 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.90 | 7.54 | 5.46 | 8.86 | 1.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.55 | 7.06 | 5.25 | 7.98 | 1.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 95.09 | 50.16 | 17.74 | 323.80 | 109.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARGX's fair value at $606.51 vs the current price of $783.50, implying -22.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $606.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $305.57 (P10) to $865.61 (P90), with a median of $560.55.
ARGX's current P/E of 61.3x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +135.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover ARGX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1052.30 (range: $858.00 — $1317.00), implying +34.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (30), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARGX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.