MODEL VERDICT
BioNTech SE (BNTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $97.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $105.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $102.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $99.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $95.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $27.84 | -71.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $58.76 | -39.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $89.09 | -8.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $60.48 | -38.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $25.62 | -73.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.38 | -44.3% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 367.01 | 16.91 | 4.05 | 1430.18 | 708.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.03 | 4.39 | 1.84 | 11.87 | 5.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.45 | 4.27 | 1.87 | 16.22 | 7.68 |
| P/FCF | 46.15 | 45.39 | 2.84 | 91.00 | 48.55 |
| P/FFO | 102.32 | 14.73 | 3.93 | 375.88 | 182.57 |
| P/TBV | 6.59 | 1.89 | 1.33 | 17.63 | 7.39 |
| P/AFFO | 13.42 | 6.54 | 4.07 | 29.66 | 14.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.81 | 1.87 | 1.20 | 14.77 | 6.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 19.81 | 8.35 | 2.17 | 65.98 | 24.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates BNTX's fair value at $54.38 vs the current price of $97.54, implying -44.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.07 (P10) to $84.16 (P90), with a median of $61.14.
BNTX's current P/E of -18.4x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -178.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 367.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover BNTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.13 (range: $113.00 — $155.00), implying +40.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BNTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.