MODEL VERDICT
BioNTech SE (BNTX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $110.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $110.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $105.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $108.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $99.85 | Pending | +10.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $165.79 | +50.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $133.71 | +21.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $187.46 | +70.1% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 367.01 | 16.91 | 4.05 | 1430.18 | 708.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.03 | 4.39 | 1.84 | 11.87 | 5.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.45 | 4.27 | 1.87 | 16.22 | 7.68 |
| P/FCF | 33.11 | 5.49 | 2.84 | 91.00 | 50.15 |
| P/FFO | 102.32 | 14.73 | 3.93 | 375.88 | 182.57 |
| P/TBV | 7.46 | 3.81 | 1.34 | 17.63 | 7.69 |
| P/AFFO | 13.42 | 6.54 | 4.07 | 29.66 | 14.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.58 | 3.75 | 1.27 | 14.77 | 6.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 21.72 | 8.33 | 2.17 | 65.98 | 26.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BNTX's fair value at $187.46 vs the current price of $110.23, implying +70.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $187.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $104.59 (P10) to $278.58 (P90), with a median of $182.34.
BNTX's current P/E of -33.7x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -257.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 367.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover BNTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $136.80 (range: $113.00 — $155.00), implying +24.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BNTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.