MODEL VERDICT
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $296.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $305.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $309.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $333.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $322.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $85.41 | -71.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $100.08 | -66.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $51.59 | -82.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $59.79 | -79.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $80.55 | -72.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $67.76 | -77.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $157.17 | -46.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $162.77 | -45.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $52.06 | -82.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $59.19 | -80.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $105.90 | -64.2% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 107× | 117× | 127× (Current) | 137× | 147× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $259 | $284 | $308 | $332 | $356 |
| Conservative (7%) | $266 | $290 | $315 | $340 | $365 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $274 | $300 | $326 | $351 | $377 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $283 | $309 | $336 | $362 | $389 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 114.64 | 34.15 | 8.75 | 447.73 | 187.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 114.64 | 34.15 | 8.75 | 447.73 | 187.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 25.73 | 23.79 | 13.08 | 57.26 | 15.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALNY's fair value at $105.90 vs the current price of $296.11, implying -64.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $105.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.11 (P10) to $109.01 (P90), with a median of $91.55.
ALNY's current P/E of 127.1x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +474.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
52 analysts cover ALNY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $445.67 (range: $351.00 — $530.00), implying +50.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (39), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALNY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.