MODEL VERDICT
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $332.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $336.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $314.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $322.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $398.29 | Below threshold | -19.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $173.91 | -47.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $72.29 | -78.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $49.04 | -85.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $91.32 | -72.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $70.24 | -78.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $70.33 | -78.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $244.70 | -26.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $253.34 | -23.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $55.23 | -83.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $95.59 | -71.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.83 | -61.3% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 121× | 132× | 143× (Current) | 154× | 165× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $293 | $320 | $347 | $373 | $400 |
| Conservative (7%) | $300 | $328 | $355 | $382 | $409 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $310 | $338 | $367 | $395 | $423 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $320 | $349 | $378 | $407 | $436 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 155.87 | 34.15 | 8.75 | 447.73 | 197.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 114.64 | 34.15 | 8.75 | 447.73 | 187.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 25.73 | 23.79 | 13.08 | 57.26 | 15.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALNY's fair value at $128.83 vs the current price of $332.92, implying -61.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.80 (P10) to $145.23 (P90), with a median of $114.11.
ALNY's current P/E of 142.9x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +578.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover ALNY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $461.06 (range: $351.00 — $549.00), implying +38.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (39), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALNY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.