MODEL VERDICT
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $30.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $29.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $27.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $27.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.41 | Pending | -5.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $8.13 | -73.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $7.49 | -75.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.93 | -50.6% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.71 | 1.53 | 1.23 | 7.48 | 2.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.71 | 1.53 | 1.23 | 7.48 | 2.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 51.97 | 46.21 | 24.30 | 108.04 | 33.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGIO's fair value at $14.93 vs the current price of $30.23, implying -50.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
AGIO's current P/E of -4.2x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -119.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover AGIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.50 (range: $25.00 — $62.00), implying +37.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AGIO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.