MODEL VERDICT
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $37.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $33.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $28.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $26.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $26.32 | Below threshold | +4.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $13.06 | -65.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $12.92 | -65.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.10 | -54.3% | 100% | 49 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.34 | 53.06 | 14.85 | 59.12 | 24.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 47.60 | 51.40 | 36.09 | 55.32 | 10.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.91 | 54.34 | 39.29 | 65.10 | 12.96 |
| P/FCF | 363.32 | 489.11 | 89.61 | 511.22 | 237.29 |
| P/FFO | 41.04 | 51.65 | 14.27 | 57.22 | 23.35 |
| P/TBV | 12.58 | 5.89 | 2.90 | 49.54 | 16.59 |
| P/AFFO | 43.72 | 56.80 | 14.58 | 59.76 | 25.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.43 | 4.86 | 2.90 | 49.54 | 16.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.34 | 10.13 | 2.13 | 34.17 | 10.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates AEHR's fair value at $17.10 vs the current price of $37.43, implying -54.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.14 (P10) to $20.75 (P90), with a median of $14.20.
AEHR's current P/E of -287.9x compares to the industry median of 43.0x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -769.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover AEHR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $21.00 — $29.00), implying -33.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AEHR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.