MODEL VERDICT
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $389.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $387.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $375.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $374.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $379.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $245.88 | -36.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $106.08 | -72.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $176.30 | -54.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $141.36 | -63.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $109.64 | -71.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $172.78 | -55.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $7.67 | -98.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $169.83 | -56.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $172.79 | -55.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $208.45 | -46.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $134.22 | -65.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.51 | -56.9% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 85× | 93× | 101× (Current) | 109× | 117× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $333 | $364 | $396 | $427 | $458 |
| Conservative (5%) | $343 | $375 | $407 | $439 | $472 |
| Base Case (1.9%) | $333 | $364 | $395 | $427 | $458 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $335 | $366 | $398 | $429 | $461 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.43 | 42.13 | 16.22 | 126.65 | 38.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.68 | 29.50 | 13.09 | 55.82 | 15.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.90 | 22.76 | 11.12 | 41.17 | 11.07 |
| P/FCF | 50.03 | 32.23 | 22.68 | 118.12 | 34.29 |
| P/FFO | 25.27 | 21.16 | 12.45 | 38.41 | 9.60 |
| P/TBV | 7.23 | 6.99 | 5.44 | 9.44 | 1.62 |
| P/AFFO | 40.20 | 30.81 | 16.09 | 78.46 | 23.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.12 | 4.01 | 3.03 | 5.93 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.89 | 2.64 | 1.75 | 4.49 | 0.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AEIS's fair value at $167.51 vs the current price of $389.05, implying -56.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $147.95 (P10) to $202.32 (P90), with a median of $174.95.
AEIS's current P/E of 101.3x compares to the industry median of 45.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +120.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover AEIS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $310.00 (range: $225.00 — $375.00), implying -20.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AEIS trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (53.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AEIS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3670.0% to approximately $246. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.