MODEL VERDICT
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $183.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $200.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $220.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $214.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $218.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $127.50 | -30.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $140.10 | -23.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $154.24 | -16.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $144.02 | -21.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $144.54 | -21.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $142.73 | -22.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $219.81 | +19.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $122.77 | -33.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $123.15 | -32.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $154.14 | -16.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $144.02 | -21.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $144.30 | -21.4% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $171 | $191 | $211 | $231 | $251 |
| Conservative (22%) | $183 | $205 | $226 | $248 | $270 |
| Base Case (33.4%) | $201 | $225 | $248 | $272 | $295 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $218 | $244 | $270 | $295 | $321 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.07 | 23.31 | 13.85 | 33.98 | 7.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.96 | 14.38 | 11.41 | 20.81 | 3.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.39 | 9.48 | 8.13 | 15.54 | 2.63 |
| P/FCF | 29.98 | 30.51 | 18.42 | 40.83 | 9.52 |
| P/FFO | 12.09 | 13.33 | 7.61 | 14.20 | 2.51 |
| P/TBV | 2.65 | 2.35 | 1.61 | 4.15 | 0.90 |
| P/AFFO | 51.02 | 34.46 | 14.65 | 132.48 | 43.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.31 | 2.17 | 1.38 | 3.45 | 0.82 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.91 | 4.73 | 3.39 | 7.17 | 1.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AEM's fair value at $144.30 vs the current price of $183.56, implying -21.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $144.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $135.56 (P10) to $184.98 (P90), with a median of $158.92.
AEM's current P/E of 20.7x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +19.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
31 analysts cover AEM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $237.71 (range: $189.00 — $304.00), implying +29.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 37.5% is 19.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (33.8%), with a Z-score of +1.7σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$200. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AEM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 910.0% to approximately $200. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.