MODEL VERDICT
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $115.17 | +464.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $93.03 | +356.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $127.04 | +522.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $444.45 | +2078.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $115.12 | +464.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $112.82 | +453.0% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $161.76 | +692.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $107.53 | +427.1% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $110.71 | +442.7% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $65 |
| Conservative (5%) | $44 | $44 | $44 | $44 | $67 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $64 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.44 | 2.30 | 2.04 | 3.50 | 0.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.57 | 2.13 | 0.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.65 | 1.91 | 0.55 | 2.13 | 0.66 |
| P/FCF | 1.45 | 1.51 | 1.03 | 1.78 | 0.32 |
| P/FFO | 2.03 | 1.99 | 1.64 | 2.49 | 0.36 |
| P/TBV | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.56 | 0.06 |
| P/AFFO | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.71 | 2.64 | 0.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 0.95 | 0.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AFGD's fair value at $110.71 vs the current price of $20.40, implying +442.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $110.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.71 (P10) to $92.29 (P90), with a median of $84.47.
AFGD's current P/E of 1.9x compares to the industry median of 10.9x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -82.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover AFGD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AFGD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (12.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6210.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.