MODEL VERDICT
AGCO Corporation (AGCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $118.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $116.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $118.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $115.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $121.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $136.72 | +15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $194.88 | +64.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $276.65 | +133.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $160.09 | +35.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $150.92 | +27.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $180.55 | +52.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $180.93 | +52.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $224.32 | +89.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $183.99 | +55.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $277.30 | +134.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $149.57 | +26.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $170.90 | +44.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $82 | $102 | $122 | $143 | $163 |
| Conservative (8%) | $84 | $105 | $126 | $147 | $168 |
| Base Case (11.5%) | $87 | $109 | $130 | $152 | $174 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $90 | $113 | $135 | $158 | $180 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.08 | 11.19 | 7.76 | 74.28 | 25.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.26 | 12.09 | 7.15 | 24.19 | 6.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.67 | 7.35 | 4.95 | 9.35 | 1.58 |
| P/FCF | 17.21 | 15.54 | 10.50 | 23.54 | 5.35 |
| P/FFO | 9.36 | 8.21 | 6.22 | 14.98 | 3.23 |
| P/TBV | 4.69 | 4.71 | 3.02 | 6.21 | 1.02 |
| P/AFFO | 18.10 | 11.57 | 9.64 | 48.05 | 15.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.18 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 2.68 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGCO's fair value at $170.90 vs the current price of $118.51, implying +44.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $170.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.92 (P10) to $205.31 (P90), with a median of $173.54.
AGCO's current P/E of 12.2x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -57.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover AGCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $127.29 (range: $105.00 — $152.00), implying +7.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (12), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AGCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4920.0% to approximately $177. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.