MODEL VERDICT
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $39.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $45.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $49.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $47.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $48.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $28.22 | -28.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $43.88 | +11.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $41.69 | +5.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $13.40 | -66.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $30.21 | -23.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $14.14 | -64.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $46.84 | +18.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $33.85 | -14.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $32.45 | -17.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $41.69 | +5.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $13.39 | -66.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.42 | -12.7% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $37 | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 |
| Conservative (27%) | $40 | $45 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
| Base Case (41.5%) | $45 | $51 | $56 | $62 | $68 |
| Bull Case (56%) | $49 | $56 | $62 | $69 | $75 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.37 | 24.75 | 18.37 | 111.96 | 36.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 76.20 | 16.64 | 14.55 | 418.73 | 151.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.47 | 10.11 | 7.51 | 15.58 | 3.32 |
| P/FCF | 46.69 | 47.25 | 32.11 | 60.15 | 11.91 |
| P/FFO | 16.00 | 14.77 | 9.07 | 28.98 | 6.52 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.47 | 0.88 | 3.68 | 0.95 |
| P/AFFO | 73.77 | 88.96 | 27.82 | 104.52 | 40.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.47 | 0.88 | 3.68 | 0.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.21 | 4.86 | 3.47 | 9.00 | 1.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGI's fair value at $34.42 vs the current price of $39.42, implying -12.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.47 (P10) to $54.67 (P90), with a median of $39.83.
AGI's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -5.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.4x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover AGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $54.50 (range: $49.00 — $60.00), implying +38.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 51.4% is 27.7 percentage points above the 6-year average (26.4%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$41. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AGI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 500.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.