MODEL VERDICT
Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $29.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $26.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $30.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $26.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $19.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $362.05 | +1124.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $334.97 | +1032.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $443.32 | +1398.7% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.46 | 6.46 | 2.09 | 10.12 | 3.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.45 | 6.33 | 1.66 | 9.22 | 3.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.15 | 1.19 | 0.05 | 6.62 | 2.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGL's fair value at $443.32 vs the current price of $29.58, implying +1398.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $443.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $216.02 (P10) to $716.82 (P90), with a median of $440.81.
AGL's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -105.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover AGL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.50 (range: $16.00 — $33.00), implying -17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AGL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.