Argan, Inc. (AGX)
Valuation Overview•Is Argan, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 79/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside with steady expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
AGX demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins (highlighted by a massive 59.7% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($333M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (27.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (61.0% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $291.0M | +8.1% | +27.6% | +19.2% | +8.6% | |
| EBITDA | $53.8M | — | +44.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $46.1M | +61.2% | +60.9% | — | +14.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.24 | +58.2% | +61.0% | +45.2% | +14.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $111.0M | +155.2% | — | +18.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.9% | 16.9% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| Operating Margin | 14.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% |
| Net Margin | 15.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.2% |
| FCF Margin | 46.7% | 27.3% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.31 | $3.24 | +40.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.99 | $3.47 | +74.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.05 | $2.17 | +5.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.99 | $2.50 | +25.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.09 | $1.60 | +46.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.15 | $2.22 | +93.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.26 | $2.00 | +58.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.97 | $1.31 | +35.1% |
Total return is +259.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +234.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +127.0% | +117.7% | — |
| 1Y | +259.2% | +234.2% | +0.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +164.8% | +142.9% | +11.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +74.6% | +60.2% | +14.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +33.5% | +19.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Argan, Inc. (AGX) valuation, health, and returns.
Argan, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -76.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $172.67)
Argan, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $172.67 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $665.67 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $559.00 (implying -24.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Argan, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 79/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 10.7 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 59.7%.
Argan, Inc. pays a 0.2% dividend yield, covered by a 18% payout ratio with 4 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.1% buyback yield.
Argan, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +8.1% 1Y revenue growth and +58.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +27.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 7 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -24.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Argan, Inc. include: -25.0% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.61x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.61x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.