MODEL VERDICT
Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $67.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $66.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $68.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $67.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $62.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $30.03 | -55.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $25.01 | -63.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $27.53 | -59.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $32.98 | -51.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $18.19 | -73.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $35.46 | -47.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $31.99 | -52.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $26.35 | -61.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $24.27 | -64.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $23.05 | -66.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.13 | +4.8% | 100% | 75 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 69× | 76× | 83× (Current) | 90× | 97× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $59 | $65 | $71 | $77 | $83 |
| Conservative (7%) | $60 | $66 | $72 | $79 | $85 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $62 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $64 | $71 | $77 | $84 | $90 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 148.97 | 161.07 | 26.76 | 247.00 | 90.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 131.20 | 130.06 | 104.22 | 160.46 | 23.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 101.49 | 102.79 | 63.07 | 120.81 | 23.08 |
| P/FCF | 78.74 | 71.10 | 33.32 | 190.51 | 52.45 |
| P/FFO | 87.86 | 109.55 | 24.89 | 119.19 | 39.48 |
| P/TBV | 19.78 | 13.50 | 8.69 | 57.75 | 17.26 |
| P/AFFO | 117.09 | 127.37 | 27.32 | 186.29 | 66.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.38 | 8.53 | 3.28 | 14.17 | 3.79 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.57 | 6.97 | 2.35 | 13.50 | 3.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGYS's fair value at $71.13 vs the current price of $67.85, implying +4.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.76 (P10) to $71.99 (P90), with a median of $59.46.
AGYS's current P/E of 82.7x compares to the industry median of 33.6x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +146.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 149.0x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover AGYS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $105.00 (range: $90.00 — $120.00), implying +54.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AGYS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8520.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.