MODEL VERDICT
Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $72.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $78.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $81.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $87.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $117.37 | Below threshold | -26.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $33.61 | -53.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $32.16 | -55.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $21.29 | -70.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $36.18 | -49.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $20.89 | -71.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $34.44 | -52.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $38.70 | -46.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $36.35 | -49.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $22.52 | -68.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $36.22 | -49.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.76 | -17.2% | 100% | 78 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 74× | 81× | 88× (Current) | 95× | 102× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
| Conservative (7%) | $65 | $71 | $77 | $83 | $89 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $67 | $73 | $79 | $86 | $92 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $69 | $75 | $82 | $88 | $95 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 148.97 | 161.07 | 26.76 | 247.00 | 90.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 131.20 | 130.06 | 104.22 | 160.46 | 23.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 101.49 | 102.79 | 63.07 | 120.81 | 23.08 |
| P/FCF | 78.74 | 71.10 | 33.32 | 190.51 | 52.45 |
| P/FFO | 87.86 | 109.55 | 24.89 | 119.19 | 39.48 |
| P/TBV | 19.78 | 13.50 | 8.69 | 57.75 | 17.26 |
| P/AFFO | 117.09 | 127.37 | 27.32 | 186.29 | 66.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.38 | 8.53 | 3.28 | 14.17 | 3.79 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.57 | 6.97 | 2.35 | 13.50 | 3.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGYS's fair value at $59.76 vs the current price of $72.17, implying -17.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.30 (P10) to $74.46 (P90), with a median of $61.48.
AGYS's current P/E of 88.0x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +239.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 149.0x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover AGYS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $138.75 (range: $120.00 — $155.00), implying +92.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AGYS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8610.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.