MODEL VERDICT
American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $78.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $75.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $78.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $77.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $76.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $55.36 | -29.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $117.02 | +48.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $78.13 | -0.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $94.94 | +20.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $55.36 | -29.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $151.49 | +92.3% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $65.96 | -16.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $94.40 | +19.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.29 | -1.9% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $62 | $73 | $85 | $96 | $107 |
| Conservative (7%) | $64 | $75 | $87 | $98 | $110 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $66 | $78 | $90 | $102 | $113 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $68 | $80 | $92 | $105 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.41 | 13.66 | 4.76 | 21.73 | 6.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.42 | 14.02 | 5.26 | 17.28 | 4.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.60 | 7.66 | 4.31 | 9.83 | 1.85 |
| P/FCF | 14.81 | 13.34 | 7.87 | 31.71 | 8.82 |
| P/FFO | 8.02 | 6.02 | 3.30 | 21.82 | 6.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.11 | 1.08 | 0.52 | 1.87 | 0.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.96 | 0.49 | 1.19 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.37 | 1.66 | 0.75 | 1.82 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AIG's fair value at $77.29 vs the current price of $78.77, implying -1.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.03 (P10) to $87.02 (P90), with a median of $78.19.
AIG's current P/E of 14.5x compares to the industry median of 10.2x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +42.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover AIG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $85.63 (range: $80.00 — $95.00), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (24), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AIG trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AIG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1590.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.