Albany International Corp. (AIN)
Valuation Overview•Is Albany International Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 27/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
AIN struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-2.0%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $311.3M | -3.9% | +4.6% | +5.6% | +5.2% | |
| EBITDA | $45.7M | — | -34.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $15.3M | -165.4% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.54 | -169.3% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.6M | -40.2% | +37.4% | -3.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.5% | 30.1% | 33.7% | 35.6% |
| Operating Margin | -2.0% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 13.2% |
| Net Margin | -4.9% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% |
| FCF Margin | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.55 | $0.60 | +9.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.64 | $0.49 | -23.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.70 | $0.71 | +1.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.74 | $0.31 | -58.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.58 | $0.73 | +25.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.63 | $0.58 | -7.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.45 | $0.80 | +77.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.91 | $0.89 | -2.2% |
Total return is +7.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -17.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +36.9% | +27.6% | — |
| 1Y | +7.2% | -17.8% | +1.6% |
| 3YCAGR | -6.2% | -26.1% | +3.6% |
| 5YCAGR | -2.8% | -15.5% | +5.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +7.1% | -6.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Albany International Corp. (AIN) valuation, health, and returns.
Albany International Corp. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -62.7% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $26.49)
Albany International Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $26.49 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $62.86 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $61.00 (implying -14.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Albany International Corp. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 27/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.7 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -1.1%.
Albany International Corp. pays a 1.5% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 8 years of growth, supplemented by a 9.2% buyback yield.
Albany International Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -3.9% 1Y revenue growth and -169.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +4.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 14 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -14.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Albany International Corp. include: -42.9% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.32x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.32x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.