MODEL VERDICT
Albany International Corp. (AIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $58.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $55.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $58.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $56.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $57.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $104.02 | +78.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $9.49 | -83.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $82.74 | +42.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $74.33 | +27.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $186.26 | +219.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $181.79 | +212.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $78.09 | +34.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.92 | +52.6% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.91 | 25.95 | 18.52 | 32.43 | 4.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.02 | 17.71 | 13.77 | 22.06 | 3.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.56 | 13.21 | 10.31 | 27.47 | 6.47 |
| P/FCF | 34.39 | 18.45 | 17.53 | 97.32 | 29.79 |
| P/FFO | 21.86 | 16.35 | 12.08 | 47.61 | 12.70 |
| P/TBV | 4.09 | 4.14 | 2.66 | 5.23 | 0.85 |
| P/AFFO | 104.68 | 24.99 | 18.07 | 498.13 | 193.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.01 | 3.18 | 1.99 | 3.57 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.64 | 1.23 | 3.09 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates AIN's fair value at $88.92 vs the current price of $58.27, implying +52.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.51 (P10) to $91.73 (P90), with a median of $77.11.
AIN's current P/E of -30.0x compares to the industry median of 27.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -210.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover AIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $55.00 (range: $55.00 — $55.00), implying -5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AIN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.