MODEL VERDICT
Alcon Inc. (ALC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.56 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $74.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $75.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $81.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $80.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $58.53 | -6.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $68.32 | +9.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $64.89 | +3.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $92.45 | +47.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $58.29 | -6.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $87.08 | +39.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $70.55 | +12.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $70.45 | +12.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $64.86 | +3.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $92.43 | +47.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.48 | +51.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $54 | $60 | $66 | $72 | $78 |
| Conservative (7%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $74 | $80 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $57 | $63 | $70 | $76 | $83 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $58 | $65 | $72 | $79 | $85 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 67.30 | 41.41 | 39.80 | 114.63 | 37.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 51.42 | 41.95 | 31.55 | 85.11 | 21.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.66 | 20.73 | 16.79 | 28.36 | 4.39 |
| P/FCF | 99.49 | 72.23 | 22.63 | 260.52 | 80.69 |
| P/FFO | 23.62 | 22.67 | 17.67 | 34.25 | 6.14 |
| P/TBV | 42.96 | 27.10 | 10.36 | 165.37 | 55.16 |
| P/AFFO | 69.23 | 45.20 | 23.82 | 211.75 | 68.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.77 | 1.43 | 2.23 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.23 | 4.10 | 3.68 | 5.18 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALC's fair value at $94.48 vs the current price of $62.56, implying +51.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.74 (P10) to $125.72 (P90), with a median of $98.45.
ALC's current P/E of 31.6x compares to the industry median of 32.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -3.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 67.3x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
26 analysts cover ALC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $86.52 (range: $70.00 — $101.09), implying +38.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1350.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.