MODEL VERDICT
Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $5.46 | CURRENT | -72.5% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $5.28 | Below threshold | -65.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $5.48 | Below threshold | -67.5% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $4.11 | Below threshold | -56.7% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $4.54 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $2.73 | -50.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.57 | -52.9% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.70 | 2.69 | 1.05 | 4.18 | 1.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.70 | 2.69 | 1.05 | 4.18 | 1.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALDX's fair value at $2.57 vs the current price of $5.46, implying -52.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
ALDX's current P/E of -5.8x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -127.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover ALDX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying +28.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALDX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.