MODEL VERDICT
Alamo Group Inc. (ALG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $171.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $171.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $172.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $168.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $176.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $211.83 | +23.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $278.54 | +62.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $219.57 | +28.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $259.79 | +51.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $242.03 | +41.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $342.27 | +99.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $149.61 | -12.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $278.71 | +62.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $229.21 | +33.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $219.57 | +28.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $259.78 | +51.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $254.49 | +48.5% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $144 | $162 | $180 | $198 | $216 |
| Conservative (8%) | $148 | $167 | $185 | $204 | $222 |
| Base Case (12.0%) | $154 | $173 | $192 | $212 | $231 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $160 | $180 | $200 | $220 | $240 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.08 | 19.54 | 16.58 | 28.27 | 3.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.46 | 13.46 | 12.46 | 19.75 | 3.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.73 | 11.01 | 9.85 | 15.08 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 26.73 | 19.81 | 9.82 | 71.87 | 23.26 |
| P/FFO | 14.01 | 13.75 | 11.37 | 16.08 | 1.61 |
| P/TBV | 5.08 | 4.52 | 2.57 | 8.95 | 2.17 |
| P/AFFO | 17.95 | 17.36 | 14.40 | 24.04 | 3.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.35 | 2.48 | 1.76 | 2.70 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.12 | 1.49 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALG's fair value at $254.49 vs the current price of $171.35, implying +48.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $254.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $218.47 (P10) to $279.44 (P90), with a median of $247.09.
ALG's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -22.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
10 analysts cover ALG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $190.00 (range: $190.00 — $190.00), implying +10.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5760.0% to approximately $270. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.