MODEL VERDICT
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc. (ALH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $22.43 | CURRENT | +10.4% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $23.65 | Pending | +4.5% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $23.38 | Pending | +6.9% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $24.13 | Pending | -1.2% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $21.30 | Scaled in | +12.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $17.22 | -23.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $1419.77 | +6229.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $1348.32 | +5911.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $1126.18 | +4920.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $1586.82 | +6974.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $1038.84 | +4531.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $1346.20 | +5901.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $1124.10 | +4911.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $678.60 | +2925.4% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 4× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $333 | $333 | $333 | $333 | $333 |
| Conservative (7%) | $341 | $341 | $341 | $341 | $341 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $352 | $352 | $352 | $352 | $352 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $364 | $364 | $364 | $364 | $364 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALH's fair value at $678.60 vs the current price of $22.43, implying +2925.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $678.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $630.11 (P10) to $1183.10 (P90), with a median of $899.22.
ALH's current P/E of 0.3x compares to the industry median of 16.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -98.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover ALH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.80 (range: $28.00 — $37.00), implying +41.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.1% is 11.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.4%), with a Z-score of +2.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$24. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.4σ, meaning margins are 2.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 490.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.