MODEL VERDICT
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $131.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $135.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $128.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $125.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $128.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $117.15 | -10.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $149.86 | +14.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $260.20 | +98.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $97.91 | -25.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $252.63 | +92.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $114.84 | -12.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $327.87 | +149.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $23.04 | -82.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $29.21 | -77.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $248.25 | +89.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $97.19 | -25.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $145.70 | +11.0% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $112 | $128 | $144 | $160 | $176 |
| Conservative (15%) | $118 | $135 | $152 | $168 | $185 |
| Base Case (22.8%) | $126 | $144 | $162 | $180 | $198 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $134 | $153 | $173 | $192 | $211 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.98 | 9.84 | 7.52 | 16.46 | 3.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.98 | 9.19 | 7.76 | 13.47 | 2.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.33 | 7.83 | 6.69 | 10.47 | 1.50 |
| P/FCF | 10.25 | 8.80 | 8.03 | 14.45 | 2.57 |
| P/FFO | 8.54 | 7.71 | 5.82 | 11.16 | 2.46 |
| P/AFFO | 11.04 | 9.92 | 7.54 | 14.81 | 3.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.62 | 5.76 | 4.29 | 7.61 | 1.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.15 | 2.20 | 1.44 | 2.95 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALSN's fair value at $145.70 vs the current price of $131.23, implying +11.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $145.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $109.32 (P10) to $145.45 (P90), with a median of $126.89.
ALSN's current P/E of 17.9x compares to the industry median of 35.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -49.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover ALSN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $116.00 (range: $98.00 — $135.00), implying -11.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (16), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALSN trades at the 4350th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALSN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1260.0% to approximately $115. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.