MODEL VERDICT
ALT5 Sigma Corporation (ALTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 125 industry peers | $3.35 | +89.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 126 industry peers | $2.84 | +60.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 160 industry peers | $7.50 | +323.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 162 industry peers | $8.30 | +368.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 126 industry peers | $3.46 | +95.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.95 | +123.0% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALTS's fair value at $3.95 vs the current price of $1.77, implying +123.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.84 (P10) to $5.88 (P90), with a median of $4.34.
ALTS's current P/E of -3.2x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (75 peers in the group). This represents a -110.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for ALTS.
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALTS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.