MODEL VERDICT
Amcor plc (AMCR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $37.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $38.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $41.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $40.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $41.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $48.71 | +29.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $24.65 | -34.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $24.86 | -34.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $34.37 | -9.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $12.72 | -66.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $37.11 | -1.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $50.93 | +34.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $24.60 | -34.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $34.22 | -9.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.70 | -10.7% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Base Case (-3.4%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.80 | 4.49 | 2.73 | 7.23 | 1.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.22 | 7.71 | 6.08 | 16.10 | 3.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.08 | 5.27 | 4.47 | 9.73 | 1.79 |
| P/FCF | 4.09 | 3.76 | 3.27 | 7.03 | 1.32 |
| P/FFO | 2.49 | 2.47 | 1.74 | 3.53 | 0.61 |
| P/AFFO | 3.93 | 4.00 | 2.57 | 5.66 | 0.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.23 | 0.87 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMCR's fair value at $33.70 vs the current price of $37.75, implying -10.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.91 (P10) to $30.24 (P90), with a median of $25.09.
AMCR's current P/E of 23.6x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +51.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.00 (range: $46.00 — $54.00), implying +32.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMCR trades at the 7860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMCR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4010.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.