MODEL VERDICT
AMETEK, Inc. (AME)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $230.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $232.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $236.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $230.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $234.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $172.96 | -25.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $169.38 | -26.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $217.09 | -5.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $198.09 | -14.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $202.98 | -11.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $208.18 | -9.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $184.55 | -19.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $157.63 | -31.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $154.51 | -33.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $217.09 | -5.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $198.08 | -14.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $198.66 | -13.8% | 100% | 100 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $201 | $221 | $241 | $261 | $281 |
| Conservative (7%) | $206 | $227 | $247 | $268 | $288 |
| Base Case (11.2%) | $214 | $235 | $256 | $278 | $299 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $221 | $243 | $265 | $287 | $309 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.39 | 30.40 | 26.60 | 34.60 | 2.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.72 | 24.68 | 21.84 | 28.08 | 2.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.31 | 20.25 | 17.92 | 26.23 | 2.83 |
| P/FCF | 26.75 | 24.59 | 22.61 | 32.61 | 4.24 |
| P/FFO | 23.73 | 23.79 | 20.89 | 26.70 | 1.97 |
| P/AFFO | 25.80 | 25.64 | 23.04 | 29.22 | 2.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.52 | 4.47 | 4.33 | 4.98 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.75 | 6.03 | 4.44 | 6.42 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AME's fair value at $198.66 vs the current price of $230.48, implying -13.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $198.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $176.83 (P10) to $202.08 (P90), with a median of $189.15.
AME's current P/E of 36.0x compares to the industry median of 33.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +6.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover AME with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $245.91 (range: $215.00 — $271.00), implying +6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 20.1% is 1.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (24.7%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$239. (2) Multiple compression: AME trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AME's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 360.0% to approximately $239. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.