MODEL VERDICT
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $31.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $30.07 | -5.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $32.91 | +3.0% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $41.21 | +29.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $25.01 | -21.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $47.85 | +49.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $31.36 | -1.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $32.46 | +1.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $35.91 | +12.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $32.88 | +2.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.94 | +25.0% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 | $41 |
| Conservative (20%) | $34 | $36 | $39 | $41 | $44 |
| Base Case (30.1%) | $37 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 95.14 | 90.38 | 34.65 | 249.37 | 75.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.46 | 48.78 | 38.30 | 66.40 | 8.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.38 | 13.06 | 10.12 | 17.81 | 2.33 |
| P/FCF | 21.89 | 20.34 | 16.39 | 30.03 | 4.39 |
| P/FFO | 17.43 | 15.63 | 14.04 | 25.44 | 3.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.56 | 1.49 | 1.00 | 2.15 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 22.55 | 18.89 | 16.16 | 38.85 | 7.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.53 | 1.47 | 0.98 | 2.11 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.74 | 7.86 | 5.44 | 10.89 | 1.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMH's fair value at $39.94 vs the current price of $31.95, implying +25.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.43 (P10) to $43.42 (P90), with a median of $39.30.
AMH's current P/E of 29.6x compares to the industry median of 29.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +1.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 95.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
36 analysts cover AMH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $32.00 — $37.50), implying +9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 24.7% is 11.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.8%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$53. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6690.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.