MODEL VERDICT
Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $31.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $27.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $26.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $24.23 | -22.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $128.48 | +309.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $28.81 | -8.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $72.13 | +130.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $208.12 | +563.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $270.35 | +762.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $28.51 | -9.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.54 | +153.6% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $37 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Base Case (-5.5%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.72 | 32.10 | 18.82 | 60.33 | 14.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.29 | 28.36 | 25.84 | 49.33 | 9.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.41 | 20.65 | 14.36 | 33.12 | 7.40 |
| P/FFO | 17.96 | 13.13 | 8.55 | 36.37 | 10.40 |
| P/TBV | 3.16 | 2.09 | 1.28 | 6.33 | 2.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.85 | 1.82 | 1.19 | 5.67 | 1.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.62 | 1.23 | 0.70 | 3.50 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMRC's fair value at $79.54 vs the current price of $31.36, implying +153.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.18 (P10) to $108.25 (P90), with a median of $86.55.
AMRC's current P/E of 37.8x compares to the industry median of 34.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +8.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover AMRC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.17 (range: $38.00 — $50.00), implying +37.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMRC trades at the 3850th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17260.0% to approximately $86. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.