MODEL VERDICT
Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMRX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $12.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $12.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $13.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $13.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $12.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $10.07 | -21.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $6.82 | -46.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $16.20 | +26.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $22.40 | +74.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $26.93 | +109.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $23.14 | +80.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $6.56 | -48.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $14.97 | +16.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.78 | -8.2% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (-18.5%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.40 | 57.27 | 7.49 | 68.43 | 32.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.77 | 20.01 | 13.74 | 30.29 | 6.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.83 | 10.15 | 8.59 | 21.48 | 5.45 |
| P/FCF | 7.21 | 3.87 | 2.15 | 15.16 | 5.64 |
| P/FFO | 8.25 | 5.17 | 2.08 | 20.51 | 7.47 |
| P/AFFO | 13.61 | 7.87 | 2.57 | 41.50 | 14.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.81 | 1.94 | 1.44 | 17.44 | 6.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 1.36 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMRX's fair value at $11.78 vs the current price of $12.83, implying -8.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.04 (P10) to $15.19 (P90), with a median of $12.55.
AMRX's current P/E of 58.3x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +88.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.4x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover AMRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $15.00 — $19.00), implying +32.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMRX trades at the 7920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (44.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMRX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.