MODEL VERDICT
Amrize Ltd (AMRZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $53.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $57.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $57.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $58.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $58.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $72.18 | +35.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $71.68 | +34.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $59.24 | +11.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $77.49 | +45.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $72.50 | +35.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $77.23 | +44.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $93.35 | +74.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $96.28 | +80.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $57.80 | +8.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $77.50 | +45.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.58 | +32.2% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $47 | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 |
| Conservative (7%) | $48 | $52 | $57 | $62 | $66 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $68 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 | $70 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMRZ's fair value at $70.58 vs the current price of $53.38, implying +32.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.44 (P10) to $78.88 (P90), with a median of $72.64.
AMRZ's current P/E of 24.9x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -9.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover AMRZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $66.11 (range: $58.00 — $75.00), implying +23.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMRZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6030.0% to approximately $86. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.