MODEL VERDICT
American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $181.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $178.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $182.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $176.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $179.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $120.03 | -33.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 4 REIT peers | $226.99 | +25.0% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $142.12 | -21.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $261.07 | +43.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 2 industry peers | $117.24 | -35.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $123.01 | -32.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $237.41 | +30.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $75.26 | -58.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $93.67 | -48.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.23 | +10.8% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $155 | $172 | $189 | $205 | $222 |
| Conservative (5%) | $158 | $175 | $192 | $209 | $226 |
| Base Case (7.3%) | $162 | $179 | $197 | $214 | $231 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $166 | $184 | $201 | $219 | $237 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.30 | 54.20 | 32.57 | 67.89 | 12.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.86 | 48.32 | 25.41 | 51.67 | 10.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.08 | 23.48 | 18.13 | 33.42 | 5.59 |
| P/FCF | 34.85 | 35.14 | 21.77 | 53.79 | 10.68 |
| P/FFO | 23.11 | 22.07 | 17.94 | 28.03 | 4.45 |
| P/AFFO | 34.42 | 36.39 | 28.30 | 39.40 | 4.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.16 | 9.28 | 7.90 | 20.95 | 4.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.94 | 10.16 | 7.74 | 14.17 | 2.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMT's fair value at $201.23 vs the current price of $181.61, implying +10.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $175.94 (P10) to $227.50 (P90), with a median of $201.00.
AMT's current P/E of 33.7x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +47.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
49 analysts cover AMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $216.33 (range: $185.00 — $255.00), implying +19.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (36), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 26.6% is 4.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (21.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$227. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2480.0% to approximately $227. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.