MODEL VERDICT
American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $44.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $45.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $43.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $41.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $41.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $40.89 | -7.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $44.59 | +0.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $131.03 | +195.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $70.70 | +59.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $117.51 | +165.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $89.28 | +101.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $202.60 | +356.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $172.82 | +289.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $163.05 | +267.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $131.15 | +195.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $71.14 | +60.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.69 | +91.0% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $34 | $47 | $60 | $74 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $34 | $48 | $62 | $75 |
| Base Case (8.0%) | $28 | $35 | $49 | $63 | $77 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $29 | $36 | $50 | $65 | $79 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.16 | 17.34 | 8.29 | 21.64 | 5.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.08 | 15.35 | 8.88 | 17.15 | 3.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 | 8.63 | 6.58 | 10.65 | 1.65 |
| P/FCF | 10.63 | 10.48 | 9.26 | 12.55 | 1.24 |
| P/FFO | 8.07 | 8.05 | 5.33 | 12.12 | 2.41 |
| P/TBV | 11.69 | 9.06 | 5.56 | 20.46 | 7.79 |
| P/AFFO | 13.63 | 10.69 | 7.33 | 35.62 | 9.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.69 | 1.47 | 0.90 | 2.92 | 0.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 1.10 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMWD's fair value at $84.69 vs the current price of $44.34, implying +91.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.39 (P10) to $82.65 (P90), with a median of $74.43.
AMWD's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -66.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover AMWD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $47.00 (range: $47.00 — $47.00), implying +6.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMWD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 120560.0% to approximately $579. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.