MODEL VERDICT
AutoNation, Inc. (AN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $210.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $203.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $207.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $195.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $200.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $260.62 | +24.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $228.48 | +8.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $224.24 | +6.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $242.97 | +15.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $391.97 | +86.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $294.21 | +40.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $228.33 | +8.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $216.96 | +3.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $235.53 | +12.2% | 100% | 62 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $150 | $188 | $226 | $263 | $301 |
| Conservative (18%) | $160 | $200 | $240 | $280 | $320 |
| Base Case (27.8%) | $173 | $216 | $259 | $303 | $346 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $186 | $233 | $279 | $326 | $372 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.81 | 8.23 | 4.42 | 16.23 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.49 | 11.40 | 6.17 | 15.37 | 3.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.29 | 9.99 | 5.59 | 14.27 | 2.91 |
| P/FCF | 12.75 | 7.51 | 4.54 | 29.58 | 10.32 |
| P/FFO | 6.52 | 5.80 | 3.86 | 10.66 | 2.15 |
| P/TBV | 21.00 | 5.37 | 4.05 | 69.49 | 28.15 |
| P/AFFO | 11.11 | 11.32 | 4.87 | 20.19 | 5.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.43 | 2.79 | 1.20 | 3.69 | 0.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AN's fair value at $235.53 vs the current price of $210.00, implying +12.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $235.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $173.82 (P10) to $262.25 (P90), with a median of $217.15.
AN's current P/E of 12.4x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -6.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
34 analysts cover AN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $248.00 (range: $230.00 — $300.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AN trades at the 3080th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5960.0% to approximately $335. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.