MODEL VERDICT
Anika Therapeutics, Inc. (ANIK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 38 industry peers | $31.84 | +211.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $22.36 | +118.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $20.56 | +101.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.85 | +211.3% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 60.62 | 27.43 | 26.46 | 127.96 | 58.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 120.92 | 60.47 | 17.82 | 344.91 | 154.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.81 | 20.01 | 14.63 | 70.40 | 21.31 |
| P/FCF | 63.88 | 39.04 | 16.31 | 161.14 | 67.20 |
| P/FFO | 23.64 | 22.46 | 20.04 | 28.42 | 4.31 |
| P/TBV | 2.37 | 2.12 | 1.64 | 3.72 | 0.74 |
| P/AFFO | 29.56 | 24.71 | 24.55 | 39.40 | 8.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.51 | 2.58 | 0.42 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.03 | 3.79 | 2.02 | 6.50 | 1.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates ANIK's fair value at $31.85 vs the current price of $10.23, implying +211.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.84 (P10) to $48.88 (P90), with a median of $33.47.
ANIK's current P/E of -2.7x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -107.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover ANIK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ANIK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.