MODEL VERDICT
Agora, Inc. (API)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $4.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $3.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $4.34 | Below threshold | -15.7% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.67 | Below threshold | -24.8% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.63 | Below threshold | -19.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3.70 | -7.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $5.89 | +47.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $6.02 | +50.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.47 | +11.8% | 100% | 54 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.14 | 0.94 | 0.60 | 6.28 | 2.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.00 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 6.25 | 2.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.77 | 2.91 | 1.85 | 30.73 | 12.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates API's fair value at $4.47 vs the current price of $4.00, implying +11.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.57 (P10) to $6.16 (P90), with a median of $4.75.
API's current P/E of -8.7x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -128.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover API with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.57 (range: $2.63 — $12.50), implying +89.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for API.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.