MODEL VERDICT
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $130.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $124.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $124.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $120.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $104.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $238.70 | +83.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $96.12 | -26.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $140.52 | +7.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $66.03 | -49.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $252.45 | +93.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $142.63 | +9.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $164.46 | +26.1% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $109 | $124 | $140 | $155 | $171 |
| Conservative (10%) | $112 | $128 | $144 | $161 | $177 |
| Base Case (14.6%) | $118 | $134 | $151 | $168 | $185 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $123 | $140 | $158 | $175 | $193 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.57 | 12.86 | 9.89 | 111.32 | 43.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.19 | 10.08 | 5.19 | 32.98 | 11.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.01 | 12.50 | 6.77 | 25.15 | 7.97 |
| P/FCF | 13.76 | 9.97 | 6.14 | 30.67 | 9.06 |
| P/FFO | 22.48 | 12.09 | 9.18 | 63.32 | 23.11 |
| P/TBV | 2.64 | 2.62 | 1.45 | 3.74 | 0.89 |
| P/AFFO | 39.31 | 12.70 | 9.51 | 95.71 | 48.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.33 | 2.17 | 1.43 | 3.28 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.49 | 3.40 | 1.68 | 4.73 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates APO's fair value at $164.46 vs the current price of $130.46, implying +26.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $164.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.84 (P10) to $227.53 (P90), with a median of $167.83.
APO's current P/E of 17.8x compares to the industry median of 32.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -45.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover APO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $157.25 (range: $136.00 — $186.00), implying +20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 790.0% to approximately $141. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.