MODEL VERDICT
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $36.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $38.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $36.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $34.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $69.69 | +92.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $36.16 | -0.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $106.41 | +193.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $98.77 | +172.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $75.94 | +109.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $100.15 | +175.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $379.39 | +945.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $206.95 | +470.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $202.00 | +456.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $84.60 | +133.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $90.81 | +150.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.25 | +129.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $29 | $34 | $40 | $46 | $51 |
| Conservative (22%) | $31 | $37 | $43 | $49 | $55 |
| Base Case (33.7%) | $34 | $40 | $47 | $54 | $61 |
| Bull Case (46%) | $37 | $44 | $51 | $59 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 66.28 | 14.40 | 9.36 | 317.57 | 113.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.42 | 12.01 | 7.89 | 16.39 | 3.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.04 | 9.39 | 6.81 | 21.78 | 6.23 |
| P/FCF | 12.59 | 10.95 | 8.18 | 20.81 | 4.49 |
| P/FFO | 17.10 | 11.17 | 6.15 | 46.49 | 14.16 |
| P/TBV | 5.56 | 5.72 | 4.43 | 6.44 | 0.73 |
| P/AFFO | 19.64 | 15.44 | 8.47 | 35.54 | 11.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.38 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 3.35 | 0.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 1.11 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates APOG's fair value at $83.25 vs the current price of $36.30, implying +129.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.35 (P10) to $110.07 (P90), with a median of $83.52.
APOG's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -65.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 66.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover APOG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $70.50 (range: $46.00 — $95.00), implying +94.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APOG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 74540.0% to approximately $307. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.