MODEL VERDICT
AppLovin Corporation (APP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $460.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $448.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $477.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $464.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $391.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $229.24 | -50.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $167.33 | -63.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $225.14 | -51.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $140.25 | -69.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $228.34 | -50.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $134.93 | -70.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $36.05 | -92.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $41.77 | -90.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $209.65 | -54.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $133.14 | -71.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $461.85 | +0.4% | 100% | 74 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $395 | $436 | $477 | $517 | $558 |
| Conservative (7%) | $405 | $447 | $488 | $530 | $571 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $418 | $461 | $504 | $547 | $590 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $432 | $476 | $520 | $564 | $609 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 298.70 | 70.30 | 40.66 | 1013.55 | 476.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 92.76 | 58.35 | 26.09 | 228.25 | 91.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.80 | 49.72 | 12.24 | 58.72 | 22.30 |
| P/FCF | 44.92 | 53.78 | 9.49 | 89.63 | 33.47 |
| P/FFO | 43.64 | 55.53 | 11.04 | 69.26 | 27.54 |
| P/AFFO | 38.34 | 36.41 | 11.06 | 69.46 | 28.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 47.99 | 15.11 | 2.06 | 107.94 | 52.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.66 | 11.57 | 1.39 | 42.04 | 16.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates APP's fair value at $461.85 vs the current price of $460.00, implying +0.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $461.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $234.87 (P10) to $890.02 (P90), with a median of $460.24.
APP's current P/E of 47.2x compares to the industry median of 23.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +104.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 298.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover APP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $649.86 (range: $340.00 — $835.00), implying +41.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 60.8% is 46.8 percentage points above the 4-year average (14.1%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$674. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4650.0% to approximately $674. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.