Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$434.77
→
Intrinsic$441.52
+2%
$294.26$441.52$734.08
Market implies 25% growth for 5 years
APP appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $435, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (25%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $294 → Bull $734. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $561 | $607 | $655 | $707 |
| 10% | $379 | $409 | $442 | $476 |
| 12% | $283 | $305 | $329 | $354 |
| 14% | $224 | $242 | $260 | $279 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($734) offers 69% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- 2% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (25%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($294) implies 32% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$4.96B
Year 2$6.20B
Year 3$7.76B
Year 4$9.70B
Year 5$12.12B
Terminal$192.04B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$3.97BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.