MODEL VERDICT
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $38.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $37.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $36.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $36.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $37.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $55.06 | +41.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $46.37 | +19.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $32.76 | -15.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $52.37 | +34.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $25.88 | -33.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $50.02 | +28.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $68.31 | +75.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $69.14 | +77.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $32.73 | -15.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $52.60 | +35.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.79 | +38.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $49 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $50 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $39 | $44 | $48 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 63.15 | 26.21 | 5.45 | 194.72 | 88.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 51.72 | 20.43 | 5.78 | 160.25 | 72.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.54 | 10.10 | 4.55 | 19.60 | 5.66 |
| P/FCF | 6.00 | 3.53 | 0.93 | 14.70 | 4.87 |
| P/FFO | 7.27 | 7.60 | 1.51 | 13.35 | 4.17 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.13 | 1.52 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 15.45 | 12.14 | 4.20 | 36.63 | 12.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.13 | 1.52 | 0.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.23 | 0.24 | 2.67 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AR's fair value at $53.79 vs the current price of $38.89, implying +38.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.08 (P10) to $78.08 (P90), with a median of $58.72.
AR's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 16.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +18.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 63.1x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
50 analysts cover AR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $48.89 (range: $38.00 — $57.00), implying +25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (33), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7100.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.