MODEL VERDICT
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $36.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $35.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $34.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $33.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $31.38 | Below threshold | +9.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $43.94 | +19.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $11.06 | -70.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $28.29 | -23.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $47.86 | +30.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $18.62 | -49.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $45.60 | +23.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $26.70 | -27.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $27.55 | -25.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $28.28 | -23.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $49.39 | +34.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.90 | +13.8% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $30 | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 |
| Conservative (7%) | $30 | $35 | $39 | $43 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $31 | $36 | $40 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $32 | $37 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 63.15 | 26.21 | 5.45 | 194.72 | 88.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 63.40 | 24.17 | 5.78 | 160.25 | 84.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.44 | 10.10 | 4.55 | 19.60 | 5.72 |
| P/FCF | 5.71 | 3.53 | 0.93 | 14.70 | 4.74 |
| P/FFO | 7.28 | 7.61 | 1.51 | 13.35 | 4.18 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.13 | 1.52 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 10.16 | 10.59 | 4.20 | 15.23 | 4.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.13 | 1.52 | 0.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.23 | 0.24 | 2.67 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AR's fair value at $41.90 vs the current price of $36.81, implying +13.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.46 (P10) to $67.05 (P90), with a median of $47.72.
AR's current P/E of 18.1x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +30.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 63.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
50 analysts cover AR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.25 (range: $36.00 — $50.00), implying +20.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (31), Hold (18), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.