MODEL VERDICT
Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $6.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $5.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $6.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $6.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $6.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $6.40 | -7.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $7.04 | +2.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.60 | +68.7% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.46 | 4.60 | 0.65 | 8.42 | 3.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.46 | 4.60 | 0.65 | 8.42 | 3.42 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.44 | 10.93 | 3.45 | 22.95 | 7.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARDX's fair value at $11.60 vs the current price of $6.88, implying +68.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.26 (P10) to $15.36 (P90), with a median of $9.39.
ARDX's current P/E of -26.5x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -215.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover ARDX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $15.00 — $19.00), implying +147.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARDX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.