MODEL VERDICT
Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $6.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $5.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $6.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $7.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $7.74 | Below threshold | -5.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $0.42 | -93.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $15.33 | +134.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $16.85 | +157.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.55 | -30.6% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.46 | 4.60 | 0.65 | 8.42 | 3.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.46 | 4.60 | 0.65 | 8.42 | 3.42 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.44 | 10.93 | 3.45 | 22.95 | 7.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARDX's fair value at $4.55 vs the current price of $6.55, implying -30.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.49 (P10) to $23.48 (P90), with a median of $16.39.
ARDX's current P/E of -25.2x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -217.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover ARDX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $15.00 — $19.00), implying +159.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARDX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.