MODEL VERDICT
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $11.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $13.29 | +20.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 1 REIT peers | $2.37 | -78.5% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $10.25 | -7.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $11.75 | +6.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $16.29 | +47.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $8.00 | -27.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $15.19 | +37.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.83 | +25.2% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (57%) | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| Conservative (93%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Base Case (143.3%) | $20 | $24 | $28 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (194%) | $24 | $29 | $33 | $38 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 209.45 | 12.51 | 6.40 | 1175.79 | 473.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.99 | 17.99 | 15.54 | 35.16 | 6.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.85 | 17.99 | 13.11 | 35.16 | 7.05 |
| P/FCF | 17.13 | 11.12 | 7.59 | 39.33 | 12.86 |
| P/FFO | 12.81 | 9.77 | 6.70 | 24.99 | 8.25 |
| P/TBV | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 1.22 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 17.71 | 9.80 | 7.65 | 35.67 | 15.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 1.22 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.60 | 2.78 | 1.72 | 6.57 | 1.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARI's fair value at $13.83 vs the current price of $11.04, implying +25.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.94 (P10) to $23.96 (P90), with a median of $12.90.
ARI's current P/E of 13.6x compares to the industry median of 20.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -32.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 209.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover ARI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $10.50 — $13.50), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (22.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 179160.0% to approximately $209. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.