Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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ARI Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $58M | $-120M | $127M | $114M | $107M | $101M | $101M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.29 | $-0.97 | $0.81 | $0.86 | $0.82 | $0.77 | $0.78 |
| YoY Growth | — | -305.8% | — | -10.3% | -5.6% | -6.2% | +0.2% |
| Net Margin | 7.5% | -17.1% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% |
USD · ARI · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $710M | $673M | $693M | $850M | $940M |
| Net Income | $127M | $114M | $107M | $101M | $101M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.81 | $0.86 | $0.82 | $0.77 | $0.78 |
| Free Cash Flow | $42M | $109M | $98M | $107M | $107M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ARI stock.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $0.86. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 35/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.: Bear case $5, Base case $11, and Bull case $25. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -5.2%, reaching approximately $0.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 35/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 58.4% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($5) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is inline with Wall Street consensus with a 0.5% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.