MODEL VERDICT
Arko Corp. (ARKO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $4.70 | Pending | +37.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $4.67 | -27.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $30.18 | +369.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $4.39 | -31.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $17.36 | +170.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $1.65 | -74.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $112.24 | +1645.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $91.58 | +1324.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $4.39 | -31.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.02 | +460.2% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (11%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Base Case (16.1%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.55 | 32.32 | 16.34 | 126.76 | 41.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 374.02 | 24.33 | 17.79 | 2088.35 | 840.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.66 | 13.43 | 1.40 | 90.94 | 30.69 |
| P/FCF | 21.82 | 20.24 | 7.14 | 39.65 | 15.94 |
| P/FFO | 44.03 | 6.15 | 3.07 | 235.64 | 85.79 |
| P/AFFO | 36.23 | 19.51 | 14.25 | 91.66 | 37.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.00 | 2.80 | 1.95 | 22.81 | 8.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1.08 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARKO's fair value at $36.02 vs the current price of $6.43, implying +460.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.00 (P10) to $91.06 (P90), with a median of $41.75.
ARKO's current P/E of 42.9x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +46.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover ARKO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.58 (range: $6.00 — $8.75), implying +17.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARKO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19610.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.