MODEL VERDICT
eBay Inc. (EBAY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $90.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $88.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $82.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $87.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $90.91 | Below threshold | -3.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $128.32 | +41.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $62.32 | -31.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $127.11 | +39.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $74.39 | -18.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $74.13 | -18.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $60.83 | -33.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $27.66 | -69.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $30.66 | -66.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $127.11 | +39.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $74.63 | -17.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.93 | -8.7% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $75 | $84 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| Conservative (5%) | $77 | $87 | $96 | $105 | $114 |
| Base Case (-11.3%) | $65 | $73 | $81 | $89 | $96 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $63 | $70 | $77 | $85 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.84 | 12.06 | 3.19 | 20.07 | 6.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.70 | 16.21 | 7.42 | 77.05 | 26.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.18 | 13.68 | 10.88 | 17.58 | 2.26 |
| P/FCF | 16.84 | 15.87 | 11.80 | 27.00 | 5.47 |
| P/FFO | 9.97 | 10.14 | 3.07 | 17.20 | 5.40 |
| P/TBV | 72.03 | 29.82 | 7.75 | 270.72 | 111.86 |
| P/AFFO | 12.32 | 12.71 | 3.17 | 22.21 | 7.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.88 | 6.02 | 3.63 | 10.77 | 2.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.38 | 3.61 | 2.30 | 4.16 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EBAY's fair value at $82.93 vs the current price of $90.86, implying -8.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.83 (P10) to $101.45 (P90), with a median of $85.89.
EBAY's current P/E of 20.9x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -28.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.8x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
68 analysts cover EBAY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $99.13 (range: $65.00 — $122.00), implying +9.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (31), Hold (34), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EBAY trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EBAY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (20.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3540.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.