MODEL VERDICT
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $131.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $135.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $141.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $133.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $127.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $832.16 | +533.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $932.76 | +609.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $1628.59 | +1138.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $779.90 | +493.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $1406.73 | +970.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $697.50 | +430.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $1697.59 | +1191.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $1686.51 | +1182.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $1628.59 | +1138.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $816.78 | +521.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $795.19 | +504.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $711 | $820 | $929 | $1039 | $1148 |
| Conservative (5%) | $732 | $844 | $957 | $1069 | $1182 |
| Base Case (-3.1%) | $675 | $779 | $883 | $987 | $1091 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $668 | $770 | $873 | $976 | $1078 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.48 | 2.82 | 2.17 | 6.33 | 1.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.34 | 2.39 | 0.90 | 4.94 | 1.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.24 | 1.63 | 0.90 | 5.31 | 1.58 |
| P/FCF | 3.10 | 2.73 | 1.24 | 5.49 | 1.72 |
| P/FFO | 2.44 | 2.14 | 1.64 | 4.45 | 1.04 |
| P/TBV | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 1.97 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 3.88 | 4.15 | 2.08 | 7.39 | 1.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.90 | 0.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.23 | 1.48 | 0.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BABA's fair value at $795.19 vs the current price of $131.46, implying +504.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $795.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $669.11 (P10) to $931.79 (P90), with a median of $795.65.
BABA's current P/E of 16.8x compares to the industry median of 30.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -44.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
59 analysts cover BABA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $194.23 (range: $140.00 — $225.00), implying +47.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (51), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BABA trades at the 2890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BABA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12190.0% to approximately $292. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.