MODEL VERDICT
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $210.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $210.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $198.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $206.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $247.38 | Below threshold | -15.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $164.80 | -21.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $146.76 | -30.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $209.76 | -0.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $16.33 | -92.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $120.95 | -42.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $10.53 | -95.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $136.98 | -34.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $100.43 | -52.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $83.87 | -60.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $209.77 | -0.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $16.39 | -92.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.87 | -20.1% | 100% | 82 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $199 | $215 | $231 | $247 | $263 |
| Conservative (18%) | $212 | $229 | $246 | $263 | $280 |
| Base Case (28.0%) | $229 | $248 | $266 | $285 | $303 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $247 | $267 | $286 | $306 | $326 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.66 | 51.92 | 32.19 | 80.34 | 19.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.57 | 42.82 | 26.46 | 65.96 | 15.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.15 | 20.38 | 17.39 | 35.43 | 6.73 |
| P/FCF | 110.79 | 64.07 | 43.01 | 325.85 | 120.75 |
| P/FFO | 24.59 | 21.83 | 20.16 | 35.71 | 5.69 |
| P/TBV | 12.99 | 9.30 | 6.47 | 22.63 | 6.74 |
| P/AFFO | 142.64 | 80.98 | 56.39 | 260.72 | 105.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.47 | 8.22 | 5.86 | 17.78 | 4.65 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.27 | 3.50 | 1.67 | 4.30 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMZN's fair value at $167.87 vs the current price of $210.00, implying -20.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $149.22 (P10) to $206.87 (P90), with a median of $177.56.
AMZN's current P/E of 29.3x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +0.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.7x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
94 analysts cover AMZN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $283.97 (range: $175.00 — $315.00), implying +35.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (84), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMZN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3000.0% to approximately $273. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.