MODEL VERDICT
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $268.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $263.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $250.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $248.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $238.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $194.54 | -27.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $287.27 | +7.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $255.82 | -4.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $26.52 | -90.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $214.56 | -20.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $21.12 | -92.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $386.17 | +44.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $598.45 | +123.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $594.44 | +121.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $255.82 | -4.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $26.23 | -90.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $236.87 | -11.7% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $247 | $271 | $295 | $319 | $343 |
| Conservative (18%) | $263 | $288 | $314 | $339 | $364 |
| Base Case (28.0%) | $285 | $312 | $340 | $367 | $395 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $306 | $336 | $365 | $395 | $425 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.66 | 51.92 | 32.19 | 80.34 | 19.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.46 | 42.82 | 25.76 | 65.96 | 15.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.75 | 19.81 | 17.39 | 35.43 | 7.06 |
| P/FCF | 110.57 | 64.07 | 43.01 | 324.77 | 120.27 |
| P/FFO | 24.19 | 21.83 | 17.42 | 35.71 | 6.13 |
| P/TBV | 13.01 | 9.30 | 6.60 | 22.63 | 6.72 |
| P/AFFO | 154.75 | 148.15 | 56.39 | 260.72 | 98.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.47 | 8.22 | 5.86 | 17.78 | 4.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.27 | 3.49 | 1.67 | 4.30 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMZN's fair value at $236.87 vs the current price of $268.26, implying -11.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $236.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $259.01 (P10) to $323.90 (P90), with a median of $290.99.
AMZN's current P/E of 37.4x compares to the industry median of 35.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +4.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.7x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
94 analysts cover AMZN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $306.77 (range: $175.00 — $333.00), implying +14.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (84), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMZN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 930.0% to approximately $243. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.