MODEL VERDICT
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $1757.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1996.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1988.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2025.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $2178.41 | Pending | -6.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $1212.17 | -31.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $890.21 | -49.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $1152.39 | -34.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $4931.37 | +180.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $937.24 | -46.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $5071.86 | +188.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $767.53 | -56.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $724.25 | -58.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $1152.39 | -34.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $5126.36 | +191.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3878.26 | +120.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $1516 | $1680 | $1843 | $2007 | $2171 |
| Conservative (7%) | $1552 | $1720 | $1888 | $2056 | $2223 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $1603 | $1776 | $1950 | $2123 | $2296 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $1654 | $1833 | $2012 | $2191 | $2370 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 214.65 | 80.76 | 45.12 | 807.43 | 331.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 126.13 | 49.67 | 34.31 | 442.44 | 160.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 96.78 | 31.13 | 27.33 | 356.99 | 131.14 |
| P/FCF | 60.44 | 17.48 | 9.48 | 188.88 | 66.76 |
| P/FFO | 201.29 | 51.07 | 34.10 | 801.21 | 303.74 |
| P/TBV | 29.80 | 26.34 | 14.06 | 53.68 | 15.98 |
| P/AFFO | 75.52 | 74.69 | 51.68 | 101.03 | 20.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.50 | 23.78 | 13.38 | 50.45 | 14.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.52 | 5.31 | 3.53 | 20.97 | 6.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MELI's fair value at $3878.26 vs the current price of $1757.58, implying +120.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3878.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2650.73 (P10) to $6400.24 (P90), with a median of $4361.66.
MELI's current P/E of 44.6x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +52.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 214.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover MELI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2810.00 (range: $2600.00 — $2900.00), implying +59.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (25), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MELI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 42760.0% to approximately $9272. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.