MODEL VERDICT
Aramark (ARMK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $44.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $46.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $45.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $43.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $42.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $30.77 | -31.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $33.69 | -25.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $22.63 | -49.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $28.47 | -36.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $47.93 | +6.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $27.53 | -38.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $102.08 | +127.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $81.85 | +82.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $21.84 | -51.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $27.96 | -37.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.68 | -13.9% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Conservative (7%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.24 | 30.21 | 10.93 | 39.79 | 12.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.34 | 19.50 | 12.02 | 50.12 | 14.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.14 | 12.98 | 9.66 | 42.93 | 11.49 |
| P/FCF | 23.73 | 23.75 | 15.82 | 33.21 | 5.60 |
| P/FFO | 17.28 | 13.05 | 6.81 | 52.30 | 15.75 |
| P/AFFO | 34.37 | 31.63 | 11.85 | 80.18 | 24.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.61 | 2.54 | 1.98 | 3.26 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARMK's fair value at $38.68 vs the current price of $44.95, implying -13.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.46 (P10) to $48.45 (P90), with a median of $39.95.
ARMK's current P/E of 36.8x compares to the industry median of 18.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +98.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover ARMK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.20 (range: $44.00 — $50.00), implying +5.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ARMK trades at the 6500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARMK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5030.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.