MODEL VERDICT
Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $7.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $8.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $7.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $7.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $7.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $11.73 | +49.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $26.08 | +232.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $21.56 | +175.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.44 | +71.4% | 100% | 49 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 57.61 | 47.66 | 13.61 | 111.57 | 49.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 521.77 | 44.98 | 11.20 | 1985.93 | 976.23 |
| P/FCF | 13.42 | 11.88 | 6.25 | 22.13 | 8.05 |
| P/FFO | 34.68 | 27.45 | 13.30 | 63.30 | 25.77 |
| P/AFFO | 36.47 | 30.53 | 14.59 | 64.30 | 25.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.34 | 5.40 | 3.17 | 12.12 | 3.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.36 | 1.69 | 1.00 | 6.28 | 1.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARRY's fair value at $13.44 vs the current price of $7.84, implying +71.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.07 (P10) to $16.87 (P90), with a median of $14.89.
ARRY's current P/E of -10.7x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -144.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover ARRY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.17 (range: $8.00 — $11.00), implying +17.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARRY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.